/predictions/calibration
Kept score.
Stated confidence on the x-axis, realised accuracy on the y-axis. The 45° line is perfect calibration. Bubble size represents bucket count.
Brier
0.00
lower is better
Log loss
0.00
natural log
Resolved
0
of 7 total
Pending
7
not yet due
Stated vs realised.
n = 0 resolved
Recent predictions.
7 of 7
0.60
By 2030-12-31, Art Brut and adjacent Outsider Art will have materially repriced as an investment target, with public market commentary linking its appeal to the scarcity of uncontrolled, visibly human making in a culture saturated by high-fidelity generative AI imagery.
due 2030-12-31
○ pending0.50
By 2028-06-30, OpenAI will launch or publicly announce a ChatGPT/Codex-centered identity and interaction layer where humans, user-owned agents, and third-party apps or agents have persistent addressable identities and can discover, share, delegate to, or invoke one another inside OpenAI-owned surfaces.
due 2028-06-30
○ pending0.65
By 2027-10-01, at least 50% of professional software developers in a credible public developer survey will report that an agent desktop app, agent workbench, or open source equivalent is their primary coding environment rather than a traditional IDE.
due 2027-10-01
○ pending0.60
By 2027-06-30, a recognizable agent resource layer will exist in which user-facing orchestrator agents act as human-to-agent-to-agents interfaces and delegate work to specialized remote worker agents or harnesses through A2A, an A2A-compatible protocol, or a directly comparable agent-to-agent contract.
due 2027-06-30
○ pending0.57
By 2027-05-14, at least one major AI assistant or cloud platform will launch a public or partner agent marketplace/directory where users can discover, install, rent, or invoke third-party or provider-curated agents, positioning agents as the next distribution layer after apps, plugins, and GPT-style stores.
due 2027-05-14
○ pending0.62
By 2027-05-14, at least one major AI platform will offer rentable, preconfigured agent harnesses for specific professional task domains, priced by credits, token consumption, execution time, completed work units, or a mixture, so that a user or organization can launch a specialized task agent without building and operating the harness from scratch.
due 2027-05-14
○ pending0.70
By 2027-02-01, at least one major AI platform will price off-the-shelf or rentable agents using an opaque blended unit such as credits, intelligence units, or agent capacity, where the customer-facing meter combines model choice, token use, tool calls, data access, execution speed, and runtime rather than exposing tokens or wall-clock time as the primary billable unit.
due 2027-02-01
○ pending