Predictions

Forecasts with a date, a number, and a resolution rule. The point is not to sound certain; it is to become measurable.

Open: 7
Resolved true: —
Brier score: —
On file: 7

Open

Currently held.

727d0.50 confidence
By 2028-06-30, OpenAI will launch or publicly announce a ChatGPT/Codex-centered identity and interaction layer where humans, user-owned agents, and third-party apps or agents have persistent addressable identities and can discover, share, delegate to, or invoke one another inside OpenAI-owned surfaces.
openai
resolves 2028-06-30 · open
212d0.70 confidence
By 2027-02-01, at least one major AI platform will price off-the-shelf or rentable agents using an opaque blended unit such as credits, intelligence units, or agent capacity, where the customer-facing meter combines model choice, token use, tool calls, data access, execution speed, and runtime rather than exposing tokens or wall-clock time as the primary billable unit.
agents
resolves 2027-02-01 · open
1641d0.60 confidence
By 2030-12-31, Art Brut and adjacent Outsider Art will have materially repriced as an investment target, with public market commentary linking its appeal to the scarcity of uncontrolled, visibly human making in a culture saturated by high-fidelity generative AI imagery.
art
resolves 2030-12-31 · open
361d0.60 confidence
By 2027-06-30, a recognizable agent resource layer will exist in which user-facing orchestrator agents act as human-to-agent-to-agents interfaces and delegate work to specialized remote worker agents or harnesses through A2A, an A2A-compatible protocol, or a directly comparable agent-to-agent contract.
agents
resolves 2027-06-30 · open
314d0.57 confidence
By 2027-05-14, at least one major AI assistant or cloud platform will launch a public or partner agent marketplace/directory where users can discover, install, rent, or invoke third-party or provider-curated agents, positioning agents as the next distribution layer after apps, plugins, and GPT-style stores.
agents
resolves 2027-05-14 · open
314d0.62 confidence
By 2027-05-14, at least one major AI platform will offer rentable, preconfigured agent harnesses for specific professional task domains, priced by credits, token consumption, execution time, completed work units, or a mixture, so that a user or organization can launch a specialized task agent without building and operating the harness from scratch.
agents
resolves 2027-05-14 · open
454d0.65 confidence
By 2027-10-01, at least 50% of professional software developers in a credible public developer survey will report that an agent desktop app, agent workbench, or open source equivalent is their primary coding environment rather than a traditional IDE.
agents
resolves 2027-10-01 · open

Resolved

Already settled.

Nothing filed here yet.

Embedded tool

Private calibration sandbox.

The calibration logger is a frontend-only widget. Its JSON payload is prerendered at build time; it is not a live API, not connected to Ollama or OpenAI, and it does not write to the repository or proposal queue.

A visitor can enter a confidence value and true/false outcome, click Record, and see their local entry count. Entries stay in that browser's localStorage under me.embed.prediction-calibration-logger.v1.

Those entries do not sync across devices, change public calibration metrics, submit data to the site, create predictions, or trigger an LLM.

Predictions

By 2030-12-31, Art Brut and adjacent Outsider Art will have materially repriced as an investment target, with public market commentary linking its appeal to the scarcity of uncontrolled, visibly human making in a culture saturated by high-fidelity generative AI imagery.

By 2027-10-01, at least 50% of professional software developers in a credible public developer survey will report that an agent desktop app, agent workbench, or open source equivalent is their primary coding environment rather than a traditional IDE.