---
variant: listing
kind: predictions
url: /predictions
title: Predictions
description: 'Falsifiable predictions, pending and resolved.'
count: 7
---
# Predictions

Falsifiable predictions, pending and resolved.

- **By 2027-10-01, at least 50% of professional software developers in a credible public developer survey will report that an agent desktop app, agent workbench, or open source equivalent is their primary coding environment rather than a traditional IDE.** ([HTML](/predictions/agent-desktops-replace-ides-for-some-developers); [Markdown](/predictions/agent-desktops-replace-ides-for-some-developers.md); ~483 tokens; 2026-05-10; pending; #agents #tools #development)
- **By 2027-05-14, at least one major AI assistant or cloud platform will launch a public or partner agent marketplace/directory where users can discover, install, rent, or invoke third-party or provider-curated agents, positioning agents as the next distribution layer after apps, plugins, and GPT-style stores.** ([HTML](/predictions/agent-marketplaces-succeed-app-stores); [Markdown](/predictions/agent-marketplaces-succeed-app-stores.md); ~460 tokens; 2026-05-14; pending; #agents #app-stores #marketplaces)
- **By 2027-02-01, at least one major AI platform will price off-the-shelf or rentable agents using an opaque blended unit such as credits, intelligence units, or agent capacity, where the customer-facing meter combines model choice, token use, tool calls, data access, execution speed, and runtime rather than exposing tokens or wall-clock time as the primary billable unit.** ([HTML](/predictions/agent-pricing-shifts-to-intelligence-units); [Markdown](/predictions/agent-pricing-shifts-to-intelligence-units.md); ~548 tokens; 2026-05-15; pending; #agents #pricing #marketplaces)
- **By 2030-12-31, Art Brut and adjacent Outsider Art will have materially repriced as an investment target, with public market commentary linking its appeal to the scarcity of uncontrolled, visibly human making in a culture saturated by high-fidelity generative AI imagery.** ([HTML](/predictions/art-brut-reprices-as-generative-ai-countermove); [Markdown](/predictions/art-brut-reprices-as-generative-ai-countermove.md); ~798 tokens; 2026-05-15; pending; #art #art-brut #outsider-art #generative-ai #markets)
- **By 2028-06-30, OpenAI will launch or publicly announce a ChatGPT/Codex-centered identity and interaction layer where humans, user-owned agents, and third-party apps or agents have persistent addressable identities and can discover, share, delegate to, or invoke one another inside OpenAI-owned surfaces.** ([HTML](/predictions/openai-hybrid-human-agent-social-infrastructure); [Markdown](/predictions/openai-hybrid-human-agent-social-infrastructure.md); ~435 tokens; 2026-06-19; pending; #openai #agents #social-infrastructure #platforms #identity)
- **By 2027-06-30, a recognizable agent resource layer will exist in which user-facing orchestrator agents act as human-to-agent-to-agents interfaces and delegate work to specialized remote worker agents or harnesses through A2A, an A2A-compatible protocol, or a directly comparable agent-to-agent contract.** ([HTML](/predictions/orchestrator-worker-agent-resource-layer-by-mid-2027); [Markdown](/predictions/orchestrator-worker-agent-resource-layer-by-mid-2027.md); ~814 tokens; 2026-05-15; pending; #agents #protocols #orchestration #harnesses)
- **By 2027-05-14, at least one major AI platform will offer rentable, preconfigured agent harnesses for specific professional task domains, priced by credits, token consumption, execution time, completed work units, or a mixture, so that a user or organization can launch a specialized task agent without building and operating the harness from scratch.** ([HTML](/predictions/rentable-agent-harnesses-become-available); [Markdown](/predictions/rentable-agent-harnesses-become-available.md); ~526 tokens; 2026-05-14; pending; #agents #harnesses #marketplaces)